Kaiser inadvertently raised another point in his post (below). When did flight attendancy become a profession? Yes, the word can be used in a broad sense but doesn't a "professional" usually hold as an occupation requiring specialized training? Lawyers, doctors, scientists; those are people you can call "professionals." Flight attendants are (sometimes) lovely people but last time I checked they didn't have to attend graduate school, pass any grueling exams, or even show me how to buckle my seat belt now that they have those new-fangled TV screens.
Recommendation: Short unions and pretension, in size.
29.9.05
Judge Shows Investment Savvy
From the NYPost:
September 28, 2005 -- AMERICA'S first black female billionaire just got remarried. Sheila Johnson, the ex-wife of BET founder Robert Johnson, tied the knot with Judge William Newman at her Salamander Farm in Middleburg, Va., on Saturday. Newman met Johnson when he presided over her 2002 divorce case against Robert, her husband of 33 years. Newman's decision evenly split the $3 billion Johnson netted after Viacom bought BET.I have to give credit where it's due. This judge ruled over a divorce case involving a billionaire, split the $3bn evenly, and then marries the now-divorced-but-also-a-billionaire woman? Wow. That's how you use the law to your investing benefit.
28.9.05
Mr Juggles Investing Commandments (#1 & #2)
People often ask me, "Mister Juggles where should I invest?" or "How should I decide whether to buy Company X's stocks, bonds, options and exotic derivatives?" To that end, I have decided to create a list of investment rules that will allow readers to quickly qualify or rule out certain companies as potential investments. This process will continue over time as these rules come to mind.
Note: Rules are not ranked in order of importance.
- Rule #1: Avoid any company if the company's CEO responds to a legitimate question with profanity and/or personal attacks. This applies double if the profanity occurs during a quarterly conference call. Consider shorting the stock or buying out-of-the-money put options.
Examples: - Patrick Byrne (Overstock) responded to certain allegations by a research firm suggesting that the authors should be "be beaten, f---ed, and driven from the land."
- Jeff Skilling (Enron) swore at an analyst who asked why Enron couldn't produce a balance sheet and cash flow statement along with the income statement at the time of the quarterly conference call.
- Rule #2: Avoid companies that engage in transactions wildly unrelated to their core business.
Examples: - When Delta filed for bankruptcy both EDS and Disney disclosed writedowns related to aircraft leasing arrangments with Delta. EDS is a business process management company and Disney, of course, offers media and family entertainment. Neither company should, despite their disclosures of the leases, be in the business of aircraft leasing. Last time I checked the synergies between running a company that creates animated films for the pre-K set and vetting leasing arrangements with bankrupt companies were fairly low.
Note: Rules are not ranked in order of importance.
26.9.05
Pronk market outperform; Papa Grande overweight
"Pronk" is the nickname of Cleveland Indians star 1B/DH Travis Hafner, while "Papa Grande" is the nick of Diamondbacks reliever/closer Jose Valverde. Hafner's has the edge since someone called him "part project, part donkey" and that stuck as "Pronk." It also happens to be MY nickname....in bed.
Baseball nicknames hit a trough in the late 90's but are inherently cyclical, so slip some capital into the sector. I doubt we'll see the halycon days of "Death to Flying Things", but it looks like a decent bet to provide solid returns in a tough investing climate.
Recommendation: Long Pronk, Papa Grande, Baseball Nickname sector
Baseball nicknames hit a trough in the late 90's but are inherently cyclical, so slip some capital into the sector. I doubt we'll see the halycon days of "Death to Flying Things", but it looks like a decent bet to provide solid returns in a tough investing climate.
Recommendation: Long Pronk, Papa Grande, Baseball Nickname sector
23.9.05
Cockpit Humor United
From the captain on a recent flight:
"Thank you for flying United. We know you have your choice of bankrupt carriers and we appreciate your choosing United."
Nice work United captain! Color me amused. I hereby pledge to help alleviate your company's fiscal situation and fly United on my next journey as long as you offer me the lowest price.
"Thank you for flying United. We know you have your choice of bankrupt carriers and we appreciate your choosing United."
Nice work United captain! Color me amused. I hereby pledge to help alleviate your company's fiscal situation and fly United on my next journey as long as you offer me the lowest price.
Learned/Heard/Seen This Week at BofA Conference
• After seeing that clip, I wish I was in the virtual ammunition business.
• Guy with a button on the back of his collar. The dress shirt equivalent of the superfluous third nipple.
• I have been replaced by my wife's scottish terrier.
• We looked at Meow Mix, but we passed because we didn't think we had the platform for it. But then, neither does Cypress [private equity shop who bought MM], but what do financial guys know anyways. [pause] Don't tell them I said that.
• You can have a cup of Starbucks, or you can clothe your child.
• Buy our bonds, short our stock, try some capital structure arbitrage!
• Everyone from Lord Abbett seemed to be over 70 and at least part troll. Picture the last scene in Rosemary's Baby. Now picture everyone who wasn't John Cassavetes or Mia Farrow or the antichrist. Those are the people managing money for Lord Abbett.
• Puppie adoptions were up 40% after 9/11.
• My hunch is that there were far more people from Bank of America at the Bank of America Equity Conference than people not from BofA; the ratio of suits to non-suits speaks to this. Who wears a suit to a business casual conference?
Points are awarded to who can attribute which thing to which session. Note that we only have 14 points. Also note that not all points are equal.
-JD
• Guy with a button on the back of his collar. The dress shirt equivalent of the superfluous third nipple.
• I have been replaced by my wife's scottish terrier.
• We looked at Meow Mix, but we passed because we didn't think we had the platform for it. But then, neither does Cypress [private equity shop who bought MM], but what do financial guys know anyways. [pause] Don't tell them I said that.
• You can have a cup of Starbucks, or you can clothe your child.
• Buy our bonds, short our stock, try some capital structure arbitrage!
• Everyone from Lord Abbett seemed to be over 70 and at least part troll. Picture the last scene in Rosemary's Baby. Now picture everyone who wasn't John Cassavetes or Mia Farrow or the antichrist. Those are the people managing money for Lord Abbett.
• Puppie adoptions were up 40% after 9/11.
• My hunch is that there were far more people from Bank of America at the Bank of America Equity Conference than people not from BofA; the ratio of suits to non-suits speaks to this. Who wears a suit to a business casual conference?
Points are awarded to who can attribute which thing to which session. Note that we only have 14 points. Also note that not all points are equal.
-JD
22.9.05
Dear Girl, I'm long you
I realize that, given our exploding traffic patterns, you have probably already read my colleague's callous post. Unlike him, I think you're cute as a button. I want to be long you, in size. Please contact me so we can make babies and live happily ever after.
Sincerely,
Mister Juggles
misterjuggles@gmail.com
P.S. I am completely serious about this.
Sincerely,
Mister Juggles
misterjuggles@gmail.com
P.S. I am completely serious about this.
This Girl is Not Attractive, so Short Her
Or more appropriately, you need to seperate nubility from future attractiveness. [This is a response to Juggles and Edamame]
• This is a flattering photographic situation. Slightly shaded, one side of the face, not too close. She could have giant legs and a fupa complementing her subpar bosoms. We don't know.
• Her face could be anything. She's 19 and while she has the blush of youth, she does not seem to have the structure either in face or in body to withstand age and maintain any attractiveness, which she may or may not currently have. She will trend down, and then lose all she's got by 31 when she will have the superficial sexual appeal of tapioca pudding.
• She appears to have a chalky residue on the side of her feet. That is unacceptable and it's example as to why you always have to check out the feet before consumating the relationship.
• I guarantee you she is awful in bed.
• While you both may agree, there is nothing that precludes you from both being wrong.
-JD
Background: Juggles linked me to this NY Times article, which focuses on girls who are on high riser tracks, are amibitious careerwise and attend prestigous schools but fully plan to end their careers and become stay-at-home mom's at some as to yet undetermined point in the future. He wrote "she is cute, sign me up" (he actually writes like that) and that Kaiser agreed with him.
Recommendation: Short Emily Lechner and also Edamame and Juggles's projection of women; long JD.
16.9.05
Long Self-Involvement
Our last two posts have been about ourselves, I'm sensing a trend. When I sense a trend, I lay down the big bones.
Recommendation: JD = Long Self-Involvement
Recommendation: JD = Long Self-Involvement
15.9.05
Short Blogsnob/Pheedo
Blogsnob sucks. Pheedo sucks.
Long or Short has served roughly 4,000 impressions for Blogsnob/Pheedo. It's supposed to be such that for each impression we serve we get a credit for 2/3 of an ad of ours to be served on another part of the Blogsnob network. This is the idea of traffic sharing. Our ads have been served at a rate below 20% of the amount we have served. This is the idea of traffic thieving. We have 2 clickthroughs to our site. What is the point? Pheedo is a bad service. When we short you, we crush you. Pheedo, you are crushed.
Recommendation: Short Pheedo.
Long or Short has served roughly 4,000 impressions for Blogsnob/Pheedo. It's supposed to be such that for each impression we serve we get a credit for 2/3 of an ad of ours to be served on another part of the Blogsnob network. This is the idea of traffic sharing. Our ads have been served at a rate below 20% of the amount we have served. This is the idea of traffic thieving. We have 2 clickthroughs to our site. What is the point? Pheedo is a bad service. When we short you, we crush you. Pheedo, you are crushed.Recommendation: Short Pheedo.
14.9.05
I'm Long these 7 Posts
Self-analysis of the Long or Short Industry. Judged and ranked for the strongest combination of humor and truth.
Recommendation: Give us your money. Riches will follow. We're long Long or Short?. Feel free to advocate for your favorite.
Full disclosure: We are Long or Short, which may or may not bias our opinions of ourselves. All external advocacy will be ignored.
- Perf: The Next Big thing. Abstract, yet tangible. And clearly, very true.
- Supreme Court Dance Parties: Long. Truth was strong in this analysis, as this has been upgraded to Chief Justice Dance Parties, within only a month of our post.
- Visteon: Analysis of New Ideas. A graph and fraternal due dilligience. This is why we're the best there are at what we do.
- Racialistness: Markets in Soul and Respect. An overview of the impact of the inputs of "soul" and "respect" on the music markets.
- Proposed Changes to Koran Pt 1: Mortgage Friendly. Everyone wants an ARM these days, let's not let religion prejudice a group of potential homeowners against "freedom" financing.
- Mudpies, Creampies: Short, Long. Prefaced the whole OSTK hubbub. THAT is how you analyze.
- The Number Z: Preempting the trend. Like Perf, but with numbers. When is the last time a truly new whole number came along?
Recommendation: Give us your money. Riches will follow. We're long Long or Short?. Feel free to advocate for your favorite.
Full disclosure: We are Long or Short, which may or may not bias our opinions of ourselves. All external advocacy will be ignored.
12.9.05
Updating Cephalopod Position: Shark vs Octopus
Justifying our cephalopod recommendation from July, witness this video in which a giant pacific octopus dominates a shark in acquatic combat. Here is the footage. We reiterate our long position. Keep in mind that if the stock begins to tick up, there is a lot of tentacle pressure that could push it through the roof.
Background via Collision Detection:
Background via Collision Detection:
Okay, so -- the Seattle aquarium had a couple of Giant Pacific Octopi, and for logistical reasons they had to temporarily put one of them in a tank holding several sharks. They figured the octopus would be okay because it can change color to conceal itself from predators. But over the next week, the marine scientists came into work to find sharks are lying dead on the floor of the aquarium. Whatever was going on? They stayed around one evening and trained a camera on the water to see.
11.9.05
You have only 375 songs on your iPod: The Idiot Demographic
I've been thinking about music technology on a couple levels. First of all, I've been drawing together a proper music snobbery response to two of Craig Newmark's posts, the first about how technology has killed the rock snob star and letting him know what the perfect album is. During this process, I came across this tidbit of information via CD.com: the overwhelming majority of people use only a paltry percentage of their iPod's total capacity.
Why is that? The most obvious answer to me is that most people have such small brains that they can only handle having 375 options available to them. The second most obvious answer is that there is a constant 18 month moving average of 375 top 40 songs.
But why do people continue to buy iPod's, and other digital music players, at capacity levels which they won't ever approach? Because people are stupid and cannot properly gauge what they need. Alternatively, people are vulnerable to the power of marketing featuring Bono gyrating in bizarro shadow relief video style.
A running theme here at LOS.com is that in every group of people, most of them will be idiots. Applying this maxim here, in any group of iPod owners, most of them will be idiots. This is good news for Apple.com as any growth they hope to achieve, now that everyone and my mother has an iPod, is dependent on the continued existence of the Idiot Demographic (aka TID). Oh you have released a product which already far outstrips anything I need, costs twice as much, and is difficult to order? I must have the OmegaPod Mini Shuffle
!
We think that you can always bank on idiocy. The post-war diamond industry was built upon this. So we will continue to focus on business plans and companies which are dependent upon TID. Future entries in this series include "Why own when you can lease for 50% more? The Rent-A-Center Story" and "SBUX: Hot water and filtered dirt for $4.50."
Full Disclosure: JD owns an iPod Mini and an iPod Shuffle. He fully embraces his inner-hypocrite.
Why is that? The most obvious answer to me is that most people have such small brains that they can only handle having 375 options available to them. The second most obvious answer is that there is a constant 18 month moving average of 375 top 40 songs.
But why do people continue to buy iPod's, and other digital music players, at capacity levels which they won't ever approach? Because people are stupid and cannot properly gauge what they need. Alternatively, people are vulnerable to the power of marketing featuring Bono gyrating in bizarro shadow relief video style.
A running theme here at LOS.com is that in every group of people, most of them will be idiots. Applying this maxim here, in any group of iPod owners, most of them will be idiots. This is good news for Apple.com as any growth they hope to achieve, now that everyone and my mother has an iPod, is dependent on the continued existence of the Idiot Demographic (aka TID). Oh you have released a product which already far outstrips anything I need, costs twice as much, and is difficult to order? I must have the OmegaPod Mini Shuffle
!We think that you can always bank on idiocy. The post-war diamond industry was built upon this. So we will continue to focus on business plans and companies which are dependent upon TID. Future entries in this series include "Why own when you can lease for 50% more? The Rent-A-Center Story" and "SBUX: Hot water and filtered dirt for $4.50."
Full Disclosure: JD owns an iPod Mini
and an iPod Shuffle. He fully embraces his inner-hypocrite.30.8.05
I Love You Honey. And This Time I Mean It.
The diamond industry has tailored over 70 years of marketing around the idea that a marriage is NOT a marriage without the BLING. Their recent campaign underscores their updated message in a world where the role and composition of marriage is changing.
Say "I Forever Do" as opposed to the first time you made that promise....but didn't really mean it. Well now you mean it forever, you do.
Another gem:
In the past, many men have tried to show their devotion by treating their wives with respect, providing for them, and accompanying them to watch romantic comedies involving a woman and her bookstore (or a woman, her dog and a bookstore. Or a woman, her dog, and her 3 best friends, one of whom owns a bookstore and meets guys on IM). And they were all wrong. Thanks to the diamond industry and their products backed with extensive empirical romantical experimentation, we now know that only the gift of a diamond will suffice to show your wife that you will love her for foreverido.
This anniversary, show her your love is everlasting by saying "I Forever Do."
Say "I Forever Do" as opposed to the first time you made that promise....but didn't really mean it. Well now you mean it forever, you do.
Another gem:
Only the gift of a diamond, as timeless and unique as your love, shows her you would marry her all over again.
In the past, many men have tried to show their devotion by treating their wives with respect, providing for them, and accompanying them to watch romantic comedies involving a woman and her bookstore (or a woman, her dog and a bookstore. Or a woman, her dog, and her 3 best friends, one of whom owns a bookstore and meets guys on IM). And they were all wrong. Thanks to the diamond industry and their products backed with extensive empirical romantical experimentation, we now know that only the gift of a diamond will suffice to show your wife that you will love her for foreverido.
24.8.05
14.8.05
Proposed Changes to the Koran: Part 1
My knowledge of Islamic doctrine is admittedly limited -- I'm the same guy who thought that "Mecca" was a low-carb energy drink until early last week. Apparently, the Koran prohibits the paying or receiving of interest. It's high time for Muslim leaders to update that belief because they're missing out on the American dream and the greatest invention of the modern age: sophisticated financial products. Why should I be able to own 6 condos in Miami (and a duplex in the Valley) while Muslims everywhere are forced to barter for housing?
It just seems like the type of situation where Muslim leaders should get together and say "Ok, from now on, this rule only applies to excessive interest. No loan sharking but that mortgage from Countrywide is A-OK."
I bet Mohammed would have been all about 4.4% fixed rate mortgages. He was only pissed because he had bad credit and the best he could do at the local medieval mortgage broker was a 7.8% 5/1 ARM. No way you want to put that kind of financing on a herd of mangy goats; you can't get gap insurance on them! I'd be pissed too.
It just seems like the type of situation where Muslim leaders should get together and say "Ok, from now on, this rule only applies to excessive interest. No loan sharking but that mortgage from Countrywide is A-OK."
I bet Mohammed would have been all about 4.4% fixed rate mortgages. He was only pissed because he had bad credit and the best he could do at the local medieval mortgage broker was a 7.8% 5/1 ARM. No way you want to put that kind of financing on a herd of mangy goats; you can't get gap insurance on them! I'd be pissed too.
13.8.05
Short My Own Brain
JD here and my brain has been blown by the guys at MR. TC and AT usually hit me up with some mind bending econ, but this is something that has broken my cognitive visual powers to the nth degree. In this image square A and square B are the same shade of gray.
No, I didn't believe it either. I looked it from every angle, I used every visual queue and I even tried some 3D glasses. Then KM hit me with this proof. Thanks KM, my brain is feeling less vulnerable now. My intuition will bounce back though, so be ready to jump on it long in the near future. Big time. JD out.
No, I didn't believe it either. I looked it from every angle, I used every visual queue and I even tried some 3D glasses. Then KM hit me with this proof. Thanks KM, my brain is feeling less vulnerable now. My intuition will bounce back though, so be ready to jump on it long in the near future. Big time. JD out.
11.8.05
Aliboohoo: 你的爸爸是谁
Yes yes, this whole $1bn Yahoo-Alibaba stake aquisition deal is big news to some people and I'm sure it will have some sort of really important impact on China, Indochine, Siam and all those places.
But all these stock-crazed investors are missing the glorious naming opportunities as the two funniest corporate names come together as one. When they inevitably decide to create new names and rebrand all their products, a total no-brainer in this analyst's opinion, the possibilities will be endless.
Yahooba has already been penned, but let's delve into my grab bag of branding brilliance:
Aliboohoo. It calls attention to the emptiness of life and the pathos associated with a capitalistic bourgeois existence.
Yalibaboo!. Alludes to a distant time, the golden age of our Half-Human Half-Dinosaur ancestors, who founded civilization 33,000 years ago and created badmitton (still played to this day, the oldest sport in continuous existence).
Baba ali,ya? Hoo!. Who am I? Why am I here? What is the meaning of life? Hoo!
Aliyahooblies. It booms out at you, making its presence felt from the very bosom of inspiration.
American China Auction and Search Corp. Provocative. Basic. Dynamic.
Hot-Hand in the Mahjong Game Inc
It pained my heart to learn that Who's Your Daddy is already taken by a licensing company; but 你的爸爸是谁 is still available.
It's obvious to you that these names are positioned for explosive growth because, well, we said so, and that's all the analysis you need. Strong Buy with a current price target of !.
But all these stock-crazed investors are missing the glorious naming opportunities as the two funniest corporate names come together as one. When they inevitably decide to create new names and rebrand all their products, a total no-brainer in this analyst's opinion, the possibilities will be endless.
Yahooba has already been penned, but let's delve into my grab bag of branding brilliance:
Aliboohoo. It calls attention to the emptiness of life and the pathos associated with a capitalistic bourgeois existence.
Yalibaboo!. Alludes to a distant time, the golden age of our Half-Human Half-Dinosaur ancestors, who founded civilization 33,000 years ago and created badmitton (still played to this day, the oldest sport in continuous existence).
Baba ali,ya? Hoo!. Who am I? Why am I here? What is the meaning of life? Hoo!
Aliyahooblies. It booms out at you, making its presence felt from the very bosom of inspiration.
American China Auction and Search Corp. Provocative. Basic. Dynamic.
Hot-Hand in the Mahjong Game Inc
It pained my heart to learn that Who's Your Daddy is already taken by a licensing company; but 你的爸爸是谁 is still available.
It's obvious to you that these names are positioned for explosive growth because, well, we said so, and that's all the analysis you need. Strong Buy with a current price target of !.
9.8.05
The New Guy
Hello. I'm a new poster, my name is Johnny Debacle. JD for short. My MO is abbreviations. Because nothing beats a good abbrev. Well, nothing other than a cooler, better abbrev. The only abbrevs that I can't stand are overused, hackneyed abbrevs (e.g. LOL et al). But really, comparing abbrevs? Come on, find a better use of time.
I've noticed some of the other longorshort bloggers using really big words so I thought I'd kick it off by helping the readers who don't understand them.
iconoclast - this refers to a person who grabs on to icons, usually the ones on his desktop, and then drags them all over the place with no regard for human life. I know, random word huh?
esoteric - this word is only understood by a small group of people, I couldn't get a hold of them to get a definition.
Finally I'd like to say that I am the man. I was watching Miss Teen USA last night, and turned to my buddy right when Miss Teen Ohio walked out and I said: "she's the best, she's got the goods". Two thrilling hours later, she was crowned.
Now she's moving to New York and has free hair care for a year, and boy did she earn it. I can't wait to email her. Also, her favorite song is "Eye of the Tiger," what a GREAT answer to that question, ha, eye of the tiger, that's just great.
4.8.05
Initiating Coverage of the Little People Sector
We are initiating coverage on the Little People sector with the following ratings.
Gnomes - UNDERWEIGHT
Sky Gnomes - OVERWEIGHT
Dwarves - OVERWEIGHT
Elves - EQUALWEIGHT
Gnomes
Gnomes have been fading after a strong 2 year run fueled by gnome icon Giles Standish's turn as the Travelocity spokesman. Giles took gnomes to previously unattained levels and improved the group's overall reputation. Unfortunately, all good things must end and Travelocity recently announced a revamped marketing plan that included an early retirement for Giles. We wish him the best but downgrade the group as it appears unlikely that gnomes as a whole will be able to comp against the Giles loss, at least for the next year. Sell....
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Gnomes - UNDERWEIGHT
Sky Gnomes - OVERWEIGHT
Dwarves - OVERWEIGHT
Elves - EQUALWEIGHT
Gnomes
Gnomes have been fading after a strong 2 year run fueled by gnome icon Giles Standish's turn as the Travelocity spokesman. Giles took gnomes to previously unattained levels and improved the group's overall reputation. Unfortunately, all good things must end and Travelocity recently announced a revamped marketing plan that included an early retirement for Giles. We wish him the best but downgrade the group as it appears unlikely that gnomes as a whole will be able to comp against the Giles loss, at least for the next year. Sell....
Read More
2.8.05
I'm Long Supreme Justice Dance Parties
People fear that SC Nominee John Roberts will be an originalist constructionist contemplaterist platonic lover of agape. But all that "legal" analysis obscures the clear trends towards greater amounts of dance parties in the Supreme Court, a trend from which our readers can profit. The so-called "classic dance moves" are highly levered to Supreme Justice Dance Parties, so consider stocking your portfolio with...
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30.7.05
Number Theory
I'm long the number Z. It's been underperformed the S&P 1-100 number index for too long and it's due to rally. The biggest knock on Z has been that it's not a really a number. That's a strawman argument if I ever saw one. There's been a multi-thousand year run-up on...
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29.7.05
Covering my Scientology Short
And shorting What the Bleep Do We Know!?
.
Scientology is destined for a bounce once I get Clear, head to OT® 13 and embrace my Operating Thetan. I'm auditing, baby.
But What the Bleep do We Know is positioning itself...
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.Scientology is destined for a bounce once I get Clear, head to OT® 13 and embrace my Operating Thetan. I'm auditing, baby.
But What the Bleep do We Know is positioning itself...
Read More
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